The 2023 F1 season, marked by Verstappen’s historic 19 wins out of 22 races and Red Bull’s 21 wins in the same number of races, has finally come to a close. With 97 days until the next season’s opener, the countdown has already begun. But for now, let’s take a look back at the Abu Dhabi GP, incorporating data into our analysis.
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1. Leclerc’s Impressive Performance
While we will delve into Verstappen’s dominant performance in a later season review, this article will first focus on Leclerc.
Let’s systematically review the brilliance of Leclerc’s driving in this race.
Firstly, his pure pace was noteworthy. In qualifying, he outperformed Sainz by 0.279 seconds in Q1, advancing to Q2 and then Q3 while his teammate was eliminated. In Q3, he marked an explosive time to secure second on the grid. In terms of race pace, preliminary analysis showed him half a second faster than Sainz, proving to be the quickest except from the Red Bull drivers. For reference, Fig.1 shows the race pace of Verstappen, Leclerc, and Sainz.
Next, his decision-making in the early stage of the race was impressive.
Given the car’s performance, attacking Verstappen was only viable on the first lap. His attempt was commendable, but he quickly conceded, falling 1.3 seconds behind by lap 2.
Persisting until lap 3, when DRS became available, was an option. However, dirty air’s impact on tyre degradation at this circuit is significant. Hence, Leclerc’s bold decision likely aided his advantage over his rivals later on.
Lastly, his situational judgement, communication skills, and sportsmanship at the end of the race were extraordinary.
On lap 57, he informed his team to let Perez overtake if the gap to Russell was under 5 seconds. He successfully slowed down before Turn 5 on the final lap, allowing Perez to have DRS.
This strategy was aimed at helping Ferrari beat Mercedes in the Constructors’ Championship. Starting the race, Ferrari trailed Mercedes by 4 points. With Russell potentially finishing third (15 points) and Hamilton ninth (2 points), even Leclerc’s second-place finish (18 points) wouldn’t suffice. However, boosting Perez to the podium, thereby relegating Russell to fourth, would tie the teams, giving Ferrari the edge due to Sainz’s victory at the Singapore GP.
Leclerc’s ability to independently devise this plan, communicate with his team, and execute it effectively is remarkable. Although ultimately Perez’s pace wasn’t enough and Mercedes won, the weekend showcased Leclerc’s impressive qualities.
Moreover, Leclerc could have opted to slow down in the final sector (like Perez in 2021) to forcefully place Russell fourth. If I were in Leclerc’s position, I certainly would have. However, his decision reflects his fair play spirit and commendable sportsmanship. While some may criticize this, I view it as a desirable judgment within the realm of ethical diversity.
2. A Valiant 8th Place Finish for Tsunoda
Tsunoda exhibited excellent pace in both qualifying and the race, ultimately overcoming Hamilton in the final lap to finish 8th. Previous race pace analysis showed him matching Sainz and Stroll, clearly outperforming Alpine.
However, could he have aimed higher? There were two options:
- Extend the first stint in a one-stop strategy.
- Opt for a two-stop strategy.
Let’s examine both, referencing Fig.2 which shows the race pace of Piastri, Alonso, and Tsunoda.
2.1 One-Stop with Extended First Stint
Tsunoda’s pit stop on lap 22, switching to new tyres, gained him about 1.5 seconds a lap. Delaying the stop to lap 27 would have cost 7.5 seconds (1.5 seconds × 5 laps). However, the offset over the next 31 laps could yield a 0.3 second per lap gain (assuming 0.06 [s/lap] degradation), totaling 9.3 seconds. Thus, this strategy itself could net a 1.8-second advantage.
Yet, delaying the pit stop risked falling behind Ocon, Gasly, and Hulkenberg, or being undercut by Stroll, who had a similar strategy. If they formed a DRS train, the consequences could be disastrous. Considering the marginal 1.8-second gain, delaying beyond lap 22 in a one-stop strategy doesn’t seem wise.
2.2 Aggressive Two-Stop Strategy
Conversely, what about a two-stop strategy? Being behind Alonso was inevitable since Alonso pitted lap 12, so creating an offset was logical. However, rejoining ahead of Hamilton was crucial, so overextending wouldn’t work.
For instance, pitting on lap 20 would have allowed Tsunoda to battle Piastri with tyres seven laps fresher in the second stint. Although naturally 0.2 seconds slower, the offset could provide a 0.4 second advantage per lap, making a competitive battle plausible. However, whether this would lead to an overtake is uncertain.
Thus, both the actual one-stop strategy on lap 22 and the hypothetical two-stop strategy have their pros and cons, with neither being definitively superior. Given Tsunoda’s pace against McLaren and Alonso, his actual result was likely the best possible. Solid work in car performance, driving, and strategy secured him points. While falling short of overtaking Williams in the Constructors’ Championship, it was arguably the best possible conclusion to the season.
3. 97 Days Until the Next Season
With the 2023 season concluded, our site plans a comprehensive season review. We’ll clarify the true performances of drivers and teams through year-round comparisons in qualifying and race pace, among other metrics.
The 2024 season raises exciting questions: Will rival teams close the gap, leading to a multi-team battle? Or will Verstappen and Red Bull extend their dominance, creating an even greater legend? An exciting off-season awaits.
Writer: Takumi